Your Complete Guide to Wagering on MMA, Part II

Following is Part II of our story on wagering on MMA. In this segment, we start with the art of fight analysis. You’ll find the full stories in the August and September issues of Ultimate MMA. — Editor

None of what we covered in Part I matters if you can’t pick winners.
You may have found the best line in the history of sportsbetting, but if you have misjudged a fighter’s abilities and have bought in on the losing side, then you’ll find your wallet a little lighter at the end of the night.

The importance of proper research cannot be overstated. If you want to be a successful sports bettor, you’ll have to utilize a detailed and meticulous approach to breaking down fights and fighters. Simply “going with your gut” or playing hunches is an express ticket to Brokeville.
There are a number of steps to analyzing a fight, and they are as follows.

ANALYZING A FIGHT
• Watch Tape
Perhaps the most important element is reviewing fight footage. It’s best to watch three to five of each fighters’ most recent fights.
Take a careful inventory of their strengths and weaknesses and make an honest assessment of their striking, grappling and submission skills. Also pay attention to things like speed, takedown defense, ability to take a punch and “fight IQ,” or their ability to think on their feet and adjust to the demands of their opponent from minute to minute. Don’t be afraid to take notes while you’re at it.

• Review Records
Look at each fighter’s record and don’t just pay attention to numbers. A record of 10-0 looks good, and may even mean that the fighter is good, but it’s important to note if those 10 wins were against unknown competition in local organizations or if they were against proven fighters in top promotions.
Also look for common opponents, but beware of the dangers of MMAth. Just because Fighter A beat Fighter B, and Fighter B beat Fighter C doesn’t necessarily mean that Fighter A will beat
Fighter C.

• Matchup Styles
Remember the adage that “styles make fights.”
Great strikers with poor takedown defense often get taken down and ground out for decision or TKO losses. On the other hand, great wrestlers with little or no striking often end up knocked out when they run up against a good striker who they can’t take down.
In your review of past fights, do your best to find those in which the fighter in question faced opponents similar to the one he’ll face in the upcoming match. This is where you really want to pay attention to the details.